Written by Journalist BORIS BERTOLT
I told you during the day that nothing was to be expected from Paul Biya's speech. It is the baker of Yaounde. His speech was addressed to the international community to save time and avoid the activation of international sanctions mechanisms. The general assembly of the Nations is in a few days. Because, I can tell you today that the international sanctions against Paul Biya, the members of his family and his clan are at hand and they know it. His speech has been prepared since August 2019. However, there are several uninteresting points.
ON FORM
From a symbolic point of view, the mere fact that Paul Biya intervenes on an ordinary day, apart from the traditional dates when he is used to addressing the nation, is proof that he is in trouble. It seeks to consolidate its base, to rally some support and slow down the pressure that is growing. We do not negotiate when we are in a position of strength. The one who calls for a negotiation is one who knows he is losing ground. When you see those people yesterday who were clamoring on all the roofs that the anglophones will be exterminated, that we are not negotiating with the terrorists, calling for dialogue is the proof that they are cornered. Even if they themselves do not believe in this dialogue because the baker of Yaoundé can not organize anything he does not control, the mere fact of evoking it is a victory for all the forces of resistance. WE ARE WINNING.
ON THE BACKGROUND
There is nothing to say on the merits because its message is completely out of step with the situation on the ground. He tries a new cunning. Pretend to organize an inclusive dialogue by keeping in detention the leaders of Ambazonia. It's ridiculous. However, Ambazonians have hammered for months that there is no opportunity to discuss with Paul Biya without the release of all English-speaking detainees. The baker of Yaoundé will therefore conduct a dialogue of the deaf.It will bring together a few personalities from the English and French speaking communities to speak and everyone will leave with a few million CFA francs.Nothing positive can come out of this initiative. To listen to Mr. Biya, it is obvious that he has no control of the reality of the field in the English-speaking area. Moreover, his statement is very vague: no statistics, no illustrations on the figures of the economic recovery, no reference. It was smoke. It's clear, the baker wants to save time. But, the baker is afraid of a construction of the Franco-Amba alliance. Hence his reference to the Diaspora many times and his appeal to friendly countries. He knows perfectly well that armed struggle is an option that hangs over his head. Which brings me to the third point.
ON THE POLITICAL CRISIS
The amba-franco alliance is only possible if the supporters of Maurice Kamto decide to support the anglophones. A diagram that can not be excluded anymore.Because a sociological analysis of diaspora events and speeches clearly allows us to read a convergence of point of view in progress. But Biya knows that his real threat is Maurice Kamto. That's why he does not talk about the political crisis. For he has every interest in giving the impression that his power is not disputed. Which is wrong. Because he faces two threats, that of Anglophones who have already taken up arms and that of Maurice Kamto who can at any time become radicalized, he prefers first to attack the Anglophone problem to isolate Maurice Kamto and his supporters. But what binds Anglophones and Maurice Kamto is the challenge of the governance of Biya and its power. They ask for his departure. Divide and rule. He can not release Ayuk Tabe and company without releasing Maurice Kamto. And vice versa.But there is no dialogue possible without Ayuk Tabe, the leader of the ambazonie and Maurice Kamto the leader of the resistance in the French-speaking zone.One must have a very low intellectual coefficient to think that such a scheme is possible.
ON THE CASE OF MAURICE KAMTO
If baker Biya tries to isolate Maurice Kamto, it's because he knows that this is the real threat to his power. Since 1992, no political leader had challenged the legitimacy of Paul Biya. Maurice Kamto did it and deported him internationally. It is very embarrassing for a regime that has always presented itself as democratic and stable. In fact Maurice Kamto broke the image of "good grandpa" that Paul Biya had internationally. He laid bare the dictatorship internationally. Paul Biya is not only seen as a dictator but as a genocidaire.
Stand still. Admittedly, anglophones started the fight in 2016. Despite the speeches and condemnation the pressure had not reached a critical stage. It must be acknowledged that it was after the arrest of Maurice Kamto that the entire diplomatic machine at the international level started. At first, all the international media have set their course. The tone officially went up in the United States where Paul Biya's departure was raised.France, historical partner of the regime that is gradually raising the tone. For the first time, the parliament of the European Union adopted a strong resolution against Cameroon. Follow-up of the American Senate which gives the possibility to the American president to act. There is the Swiss who expels Paul Biya from the Intercontinental Hotel in front of everyone.Paul Biya is unable to travel to Japan to discuss with other African heads of state while he is expected. Last but not least, he can no longer go abroad to heal without being tracked down. He is a humiliated man.
Paul Biya became a lonely man. Isolated on a continental and international scale.Who runs a country on the verge of economic collapse and whose army commits genocide in the English-speaking zone. The baker knows that the problem of Cameroon is him and that Maurice Kamto is in the short list of his successors. But Maurice Kamto is not ready to wait until he dies in power. By the way, October 8, 2018 he clearly asked him to leave. Paul Biya still wants time and tries a last pass in his cunning: dialogue with him even to make the whites believe that he understood. But he did not understand anything and plays the clock.Maurice Kamto smiles and laughs.Because nothing is finished until it's over.Paul Biya will live his fall under his eyes and will flee to Equatorial Guinea. The resistance did not start.
Journalist: BORIS BERTOLT